Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

One part of the market is still moving fast and over list

By Julie Tsai Law

Real estate, Primary Buy Box (2)

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on October 8, 2026. That is real payment pressure. Yet in ZIP 94402, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted just 1 month of supply for the three months ending August 31, 2026. Buyers faced rate pressure and price competition at the same time.

The two tightest ZIP codes: 94402 and 94403

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1 month of supply in 94402 and 1.2 months in 94403 through August 31, 2026. Both are well below what most analysts call a balanced market. Sellers there held real pricing power.

In 94403, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 68.8% of homes sold above list price. The average sale came in at 108.2% of list. That is not a small gap. It means buyers in that ZIP often had to stretch well past the asking price to win.

In 94402, 63.1% of homes sold above list, up 9.8 points from the same three months of 2025, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The median sale price rose to $2,550,000, up 6.5% year over year. Days on market fell to 12, two days shorter than a year before.

How the rest of the market compares

Not every ZIP looked like this. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 5.9 months of supply in 95033 for the same period. The median home there sat on the market for 59 days, 14 days longer than a year before. That is a very different experience from 94402 or 94403.

ZIP 94010 also stood out. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 118 homes sold there, up 29.7% from a year before. The median sale price reached $4,025,000, up 8.8%. And 62.7% of homes sold above list, up 17.6 points year over year. That is the largest jump in above-list sales of any ZIP in this market.

What this means for owners and buyers

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that price cuts hit 20.8% of listings in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. That is the national picture. In 94402, 94403 and 94010, the local data told a different story through August 31, 2026.

For owners in the tighter ZIPs, low supply still supports pricing. But sharp prep and a clean price still matter. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose just 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Local gains here ran well ahead of that pace.

For buyers, the rate from Freddie Mac and the competition in these ZIPs land at the same time. That combination asks for clear thinking about what you can carry and where you want to focus.

These are ZIP-level numbers. One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. If you want to know where your address sits inside these figures, send me a note.