Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Primary Buy Box is splitting into fast and slower markets

By Julie Tsai Law

Real estate, Primary Buy Box (2)

Nationally, Redfin counted 1,510,784 sellers and only 928,892 buyers in September, the most sellers since March 2020 and the fewest buyers since 2013. That imbalance is real. But Primary Buy Box is not one market right now. The three months ending August 31, 2026 showed a wide split, and where your home sits in that split changes everything.

The split in plain numbers

ZIP 95033 had 5.9 months of supply and a median of 59 days on market, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is the slower end. ZIP 94402 had 1 month of supply and a 12-day median. ZIP 94403 and ZIP 94030 also sat at 14-day medians. Those are two very different experiences.

The tighter ZIPs: sellers are still getting over asking

In ZIP 94402, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 84 homes sold, up 9.1% from the same three months in 2025. The sale-to-list ratio rose 4.7 points in a year, to 106.6%. Homes for sale fell 12.9%. Supply is tight and buyers are competing.

ZIP 94030 is similar. Homes for sale dropped 41.7% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The median sale price rose 23.8% to $2,227,500. Nearly 66% of homes sold above list. That is a market where price matters and patience is short.

ZIP 94010 had 118 homes sold, up 29.7% from a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. More than 62% sold above list, up 17.6 points in a year. The median sale price reached $4,025,000, up 8.8%.

ZIP 95033: more room, more time

ZIP 95033 is a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 63 homes for sale in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 26% from a year before. New listings rose 25.6%. Months of supply hit 5.9, up 1.5 months in a year. The median was 59 days on market, 14 days longer than the same period in 2025.

The sale-to-list ratio was 97.1%, down 1.7 points year over year. Only 12.1% of homes sold above list. Sellers here are getting close to list, not over it. Buyers have more time and more choices.

Still, the median sale price in ZIP 95033 rose 11.1% to $1,500,000, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Prices are not falling. Pending sales rose 18.2% year over year, and the share of homes going under contract within two weeks jumped 11 points to 23.1%. The market is slower, not stopped.

The middle ground: 94401, 94404, 94070, 94002, 95032

ZIP 94401 had 1.7 months of supply and a 29-day median, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Days on market fell 11 days from a year before. The sale-to-list ratio was 103%, up 2.9 points. Prices dipped 3.6% to $1,150,000. A little softness on price, but faster sales.

ZIP 94404 had 1.1 months of supply. The median sale price fell 11.1% to $1,333,000, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Yet 38.5% of homes sold above list, and 39.2% went under contract within two weeks. Inventory dropped 37.2%. Buyers are still competing even as prices pulled back.

ZIP 94070 had a 13-day median and 1.1 months of supply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 97 homes sold, up 12.8%. More than 54% sold above list. The median price rose 11.5% to $2,480,000.

ZIP 94002 had homes for sale jump 118.8% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is the biggest inventory gain in this market. Even so, 59.3% of homes sold above list and the median was only 16 days. Supply rose, but demand absorbed it.

ZIP 95032 had 2.1 months of supply and a 23-day median. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 66 homes sold, down 7%. The median price rose 10.1% to $2,700,000. Homes for sale fell 6.1%. Slower than the tightest ZIPs, but still a seller's market by supply.

What the national picture adds

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. That is real pressure on buyers everywhere. Redfin reported that the typical U.S. buyer's monthly payment hit $2,777, the highest on record except the week before. Realtor.com said price cuts hit 20.8% of U.S. listings in September, the highest since October 2022.

Those national numbers explain why ZIP 95033 has more supply and slower sales. They do not explain why ZIP 94402 and ZIP 94403 are still seeing 63% and 69% of homes sell above list. Local demand is doing real work in the tighter parts of this market.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Most ZIP codes here beat that by a wide margin. ZIP 94030 was up 23.8%. ZIP 95030 was up 23.4%. ZIP 94010 was up 8.8%. Local conditions are driving results that look nothing like the national average.

What this means, ZIP by ZIP

If you own in ZIP 94402, ZIP 94403, ZIP 94030 or ZIP 94010, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows demand is still strong. Homes priced well are going fast and going over list. That is useful to know before you pick a number.

If you own in ZIP 95033, you have more competition from other sellers. The data shows 5.9 months of supply and a 59-day median. Pricing and preparation matter more here than in the tighter ZIPs. The good news: prices are still up 11.1% year over year and pending sales rose 18.2%. Demand exists. It just takes longer to find it.

If you are buying, ZIP 95033 gives you the most time to think. ZIP 94402 and ZIP 94403 give you almost none. Know which market you are entering before you write an offer.